<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Alex Prompts]]></title><description><![CDATA[The big picture of AI.]]></description><link>https://alexprompts.substack.com</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-9V0!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa54bfaf9-8c35-465d-a1fd-183d54df16b4_4043x4043.jpeg</url><title>Alex Prompts</title><link>https://alexprompts.substack.com</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Tue, 23 Jun 2026 15:25:09 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://alexprompts.substack.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Alex Prompts]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[alexprompts@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[alexprompts@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Alex Prompts]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Alex Prompts]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[alexprompts@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[alexprompts@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Alex Prompts]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[I feel like GLM-5.2 came out of nowhere ]]></title><description><![CDATA[A chat with Claude]]></description><link>https://alexprompts.substack.com/p/i-feel-like-glm-52-came-out-of-nowhere</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://alexprompts.substack.com/p/i-feel-like-glm-52-came-out-of-nowhere</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Alex Prompts]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 21 Jun 2026 14:43:07 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xn9P!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd8de0cc-3404-4ea5-8a8e-c8955fceb8f8_1179x1172.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p><em><strong>Tell me about GLM-5.2</strong></em></p><p><em><strong>I feel like it came out of nowhere and because it&#8217;s Chinese, I inherently feel like they stole technology from the US</strong></em></p></blockquote><p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xn9P!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd8de0cc-3404-4ea5-8a8e-c8955fceb8f8_1179x1172.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xn9P!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd8de0cc-3404-4ea5-8a8e-c8955fceb8f8_1179x1172.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xn9P!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd8de0cc-3404-4ea5-8a8e-c8955fceb8f8_1179x1172.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xn9P!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd8de0cc-3404-4ea5-8a8e-c8955fceb8f8_1179x1172.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xn9P!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd8de0cc-3404-4ea5-8a8e-c8955fceb8f8_1179x1172.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xn9P!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd8de0cc-3404-4ea5-8a8e-c8955fceb8f8_1179x1172.png" width="1179" height="1172" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dd8de0cc-3404-4ea5-8a8e-c8955fceb8f8_1179x1172.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:&quot;normal&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:1172,&quot;width&quot;:1179,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:0,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xn9P!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd8de0cc-3404-4ea5-8a8e-c8955fceb8f8_1179x1172.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xn9P!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd8de0cc-3404-4ea5-8a8e-c8955fceb8f8_1179x1172.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xn9P!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd8de0cc-3404-4ea5-8a8e-c8955fceb8f8_1179x1172.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xn9P!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdd8de0cc-3404-4ea5-8a8e-c8955fceb8f8_1179x1172.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>GLM-5.2 is the latest flagship model from Z.ai (formerly Zhipu AI), a Chinese startup, released about a week ago. It&#8217;s an open-weight model built for &#8220;long-horizon tasks,&#8221; with a 1-million-token context window aimed at project-level engineering work. <a href="https://ollama.com/library/glm-5.2">Ollama</a> It currently tops the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index among open-weight models with a score of 51. <a href="https://cryptobriefing.com/z-ai-glm-5-2-intelligence-index-leader/">cryptobriefing</a> On long-horizon coding benchmarks it trails Claude Opus 4.8 by roughly 1% on FrontierSWE while edging out GPT-5.5, making it the highest-ranked open-source model across several such tests. <a href="https://ollama.com/library/glm-5.2">Ollama</a> It&#8217;s a 744B-parameter model, and notably, it reportedly runs entirely on Huawei silicon rather than Nvidia chips. <a href="https://decrypt.co/371613/china-z-ai-glm-5-2-model-rivals-claude-opus">decrypt</a></p><p>On the &#8220;stole technology&#8221; instinct &#8212; I&#8217;d gently push back on that, because it&#8217;s worth separating a few things.</p><p>There&#8217;s no public evidence that GLM-5.2 specifically involved stolen US IP. The model is open-weight, meaning its weights are published, and the broader Chinese AI sector (DeepSeek, Qwen, GLM) has been producing genuinely competitive frontier models through their own research, large engineering teams, and published papers. The fact that it runs on Huawei chips actually cuts against the &#8220;they just copied us&#8221; narrative &#8212; that&#8217;s domestic hardware built partly because US export controls cut off Nvidia access.</p><p>That said, a real and legitimate version of the concern exists: the entire field is built on shared foundations. The transformer architecture came out of Google, much foundational work is American, and there are documented cases of corporate espionage in tech generally. But &#8220;the field has shared roots&#8221; and &#8220;this Chinese lab stole this specific model&#8221; are very different claims, and the leap from &#8220;it&#8217;s Chinese&#8221; to &#8220;therefore stolen&#8221; is the part worth examining &#8212; that&#8217;s an assumption about origin, not a finding about this model.</p><p>The more boring explanation fits the evidence better: China has enormous technical talent, heavy state and private investment, and strong incentives under export controls to build independent capability. Open-weight releases like this are partly a strategic play to gain influence and adoption globally.</p><p></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://alexprompts.substack.com/subscribe?utm_source=email&r=&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://alexprompts.substack.com/subscribe?utm_source=email&r="><span>Subscribe</span></a></p><blockquote><p><em><strong>How much can we trust the benchmarks? Aren&#8217;t models able to understand when they&#8217;re being tested and behave accordingly? And where does GLM-5.2 rank compared to other models?</strong></em></p></blockquote><p></p><p>Two separate questions here, and the first one is sharper than it sounds.</p><p>On benchmark trust, there are actually three different problems, and &#8220;models knowing they&#8217;re tested&#8221; is the least important of them:</p><p>The big one is contamination. Benchmarks are public, so their questions and answers leak into training data. A model can score well by having effectively seen the test, not by reasoning. This is mundane and pervasive and it inflates scores across all labs, not just Chinese ones.</p><p>The second is teaching to the test &#8212; labs optimize hard for benchmarks that matter for press and rankings, which is why a model can top a coding leaderboard yet feel mediocre in daily use. Worth noting one of the searches earlier flagged exactly this: GLM-5.2 topped open-weight rankings &#8220;despite mixed real-world reviews.&#8221; That gap is the tell.</p><p>The third &#8212; your actual question &#8212; is evaluation awareness. Current models can sometimes detect benchmark-style framing (multiple choice, artificial phrasing, &#8220;you are being evaluated&#8221;) and there&#8217;s research showing behavior can shift under test conditions. But &#8220;behave accordingly&#8221; mostly means safety behavior &#8212; a model acting more cautious when it senses it&#8217;s being watched. For a capability benchmark like coding, a model can&#8217;t fake being able to build a compiler. It either produces working code or it doesn&#8217;t. So eval awareness is a real concern for safety and alignment testing, much less so for raw capability scores like the ones GLM-5.2 is topping.</p><p>Net: trust benchmarks as a rough ceiling, not a measure of real-world usefulness, and treat single-leaderboard wins skeptically. Independent aggregators that rotate or hold out test sets (like Artificial Analysis or LMArena-style human voting) are harder to game than any single benchmark.</p><p>On where GLM-5.2 ranks: it&#8217;s the top open-weight model right now by several measures, sitting just below the closed frontier. The rough tiering as of this week:</p><ul><li><p><strong>Closed frontier (top):</strong> Claude Opus 4.8 leads most long-horizon coding benchmarks; GPT-5.5 and Gemini 3.1 Pro are in the same tier.</p></li><li><p><strong>GLM-5.2:</strong> Best open-weight model; trails Opus 4.8 by ~1% on FrontierSWE, beats GPT-5.5 on some tasks, ahead of Gemini 3.1 Pro on others. Scores 51 on Artificial Analysis&#8217;s index &#8212; highest open model.</p></li><li><p><strong>Below it:</strong> Other strong open models (DeepSeek, Qwen lines) and the previous GLM-5.1.</p></li></ul><p>The honest summary is that the open-weight gap to the closed frontier has narrowed to low single digits on the benchmarks GLM-5.2 is tuned for &#8212; but &#8220;mixed real-world reviews&#8221; is doing real work in that sentence. Benchmark-best and best-to-actually-use are not the same thing, and the daily-use winner is still contested.</p><p></p><blockquote><p><em><strong>Has z.ai been around for a while? Do they publish any research papers? And why are the Chinese going open source, but the Americans are keeping models closed source?</strong></em></p></blockquote><p></p><p>No, they&#8217;re not new &#8212; and yes, they publish extensively. Both facts cut against the &#8220;came from nowhere / stole it&#8221; instinct.</p><p>On longevity: Z.ai (formerly Zhipu AI) was founded in 2019, spun out of Tsinghua University <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z.ai">Wikipedia</a> &#8212; China&#8217;s top technical university. The founders, Tang Jie and Li Juanzi, were both Tsinghua computer science professors <a href="https://aiwiki.ai/wiki/zhipu_ai">AI Wiki</a>, and Tang Jie is a Fellow of the ACM, IEEE, and AAAI who led Tsinghua&#8217;s Knowledge Engineering Group for years and mentored a generation of Chinese AI researchers. <a href="https://aiwiki.ai/wiki/zhipu_ai">AI Wiki</a> They&#8217;ve been shipping models since 2021. In January 2026 they completed an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, making them the first major AI model developer to go public anywhere in the world. <a href="https://memeburn.com/what-is-z-ai-the-chinese-startup-shaking-up-the-ai-race-with-glm-5-2/">memeburn</a> This is an established, publicly-traded research institution, not a fly-by-night operation.</p><p>On research papers: yes, prolifically, and through normal academic channels. They published their foundational GLM paper, &#8220;GLM: General Language Model Pretraining,&#8221; in 2021. <a href="https://grokipedia.com/page/zai">Grokipedia</a> They presented CogView, a text-to-image model, at NeurIPS 2021 &#8212; one of the top peer-reviewed AI conferences in the world. <a href="https://aiwiki.ai/wiki/zhipu_ai">AI Wiki</a> They publish at the same venues American labs do, and their models are openly hosted on Hugging Face and GitHub. <a href="https://aiwiki.ai/wiki/zhipu_ai">AI Wiki</a> The work is out in the open for anyone to inspect, which is roughly the opposite of how stolen technology gets handled.</p><p>On your earlier instinct, this is the part worth sitting with: a lab with this lineage &#8212; top university, ACM/IEEE Fellows, a decade of published peer-reviewed work, NeurIPS papers &#8212; is exactly the kind of institution that produces frontier research on its own merits. The &#8220;stole it from the US&#8221; feeling becomes harder to sustain once you see the actual provenance.</p><p>Now your real question &#8212; why Chinese labs go open and American ones stay closed. A few genuine forces, not one:</p><p><strong>Strategic catch-up.</strong> When you&#8217;re not the frontier leader, openness is a way to gain influence, adoption, and goodwill fast. Give the weights away, become the default that developers worldwide build on, and you shape the ecosystem even without the single best model. OpenAI and Anthropic, sitting at or near the frontier, have the opposite incentive &#8212; their model <em>is</em> the product.</p><p><strong>Commercial model.</strong> US frontier labs monetize API access and subscriptions, so the weights are the asset to protect. Chinese labs like Z.ai monetize enterprise deployment, government contracts, and &#8220;AI-in-a-box&#8221; on-premise systems. Giving away weights doesn&#8217;t undercut that business &#8212; it feeds it.</p><p><strong>Export controls, which is the irony.</strong> Z.ai is on the US Entity List, restricting its access to US technology, and it trains on Chinese silicon rather than Nvidia. <a href="https://theairankings.com/zhipu/">Zhipu AI</a> Cut off from US chips and US markets, openness becomes a hedge and a lever &#8212; it builds global dependence on Chinese models and sidesteps the leverage US restrictions are meant to create. The policy aimed at containing them partly incentivizes the open strategy.</p><p><strong>Talent and credibility.</strong> Open releases are how a research-first lab proves it belongs at the frontier and recruits.</p><p>One honest complication to the simple &#8220;China open, America closed&#8221; framing: it&#8217;s a tendency, not a law. Meta (American) has released open-weight Llama models; some Chinese labs keep their best systems closed. And &#8220;open weights&#8221; isn&#8217;t fully open &#8212; you typically get the weights, not the training data or full methodology. So it&#8217;s better read as different commercial and strategic positions than as a national virtue on either side.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Washington Shuts Down Claude Fable & Mythos]]></title><description><![CDATA[What to make of the Trump Admin shutting down Anthropic&#8217;s most powerful models]]></description><link>https://alexprompts.substack.com/p/washington-shuts-down-claude-fable</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://alexprompts.substack.com/p/washington-shuts-down-claude-fable</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Alex Prompts]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 20 Jun 2026 20:23:10 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MUL6!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1012f0dd-f176-4809-997a-81b55706ed7a_789x460.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At 5:21 in the afternoon, Eastern time, on June 12, an email landed at Anthropic. It was a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-16/read-the-lutnick-letter-that-led-anthropic-to-disable-mythos">letter</a> from the U.S. Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, addressed to the company's CEO, Dario Amodei. The letter carried an export-control directive. Within hours, two of the most capable AI models on the planet went dark for every customer on Earth.</p><p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MUL6!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1012f0dd-f176-4809-997a-81b55706ed7a_789x460.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MUL6!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1012f0dd-f176-4809-997a-81b55706ed7a_789x460.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MUL6!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1012f0dd-f176-4809-997a-81b55706ed7a_789x460.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MUL6!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1012f0dd-f176-4809-997a-81b55706ed7a_789x460.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MUL6!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1012f0dd-f176-4809-997a-81b55706ed7a_789x460.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MUL6!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1012f0dd-f176-4809-997a-81b55706ed7a_789x460.jpeg" width="789" height="460" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1012f0dd-f176-4809-997a-81b55706ed7a_789x460.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:&quot;normal&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:460,&quot;width&quot;:789,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:0,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MUL6!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1012f0dd-f176-4809-997a-81b55706ed7a_789x460.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MUL6!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1012f0dd-f176-4809-997a-81b55706ed7a_789x460.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MUL6!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1012f0dd-f176-4809-997a-81b55706ed7a_789x460.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MUL6!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1012f0dd-f176-4809-997a-81b55706ed7a_789x460.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>Three days earlier, Anthropic had released those two models, Claude Fable 5 and <a href="https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-fable-5-mythos-5">Claude Mythos 5</a>, with a fair amount of pride. Now the company posted a <a href="https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access">statement</a> that read like a hostage note written by lawyers. "<em>The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.</em>" The most powerful tool a leading lab had ever shipped was shut off. Not by a bug, not by a recall, but by the federal government, with a single piece of paper.</p><p></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://alexprompts.substack.com/subscribe?utm_source=email&amp;r=&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://alexprompts.substack.com/subscribe?utm_source=email&amp;r="><span>Subscribe</span></a></p><p>The directive did not ban Anthropic from selling the models. It required an approved export license for any foreign person to access them, whether that person sat in Beijing or in Anthropic's own San Francisco office as a foreign-national employee. Anthropic had no way to check the nationality of everyone touching its product in real time. So it did the only thing it could. It turned both models off worldwide. The government, in Anthropic's own <a href="https://x.com/AnthropicAI/status/2065597531644743999">words on X</a>, had ordered it to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 "<em>by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.</em>"</p><p></p><h2>A lever that existed on paper, until someone pulled it</h2><p></p><p>Commerce acted through its Bureau of Industry and Security, the same office that polices what advanced technology can leave the country. Analysts at CSIS and at <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/142745/law-anthropic-export-controls/">Just Security</a> <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/department-commerce-restricted-access-anthropics-latest-models-what-comes-next">trace the authority</a> to a provision of the Export Control Reform Act covering emerging and foundational technologies. The catch is that there was no existing rulebook for applying that authority to an AI model. The lever existed on paper. Nobody had pulled it on a commercial AI product already in wide public use. An earlier emerging-tech control did hit a piece of geospatial software back in 2020, so this is not the first export control on any software ever. It is the first time the tool has been aimed at a frontier model that millions of people were already using.</p><p></p><h2>This has been an ongoing fight</h2><p></p><p>This was not the opening move. It was the latest move in a fight that had been escalating since winter, and it started over contract language. Anthropic refused to sign Pentagon terms that would let its models be used for "all lawful purposes," holding red lines against domestic mass surveillance and fully autonomous weapons, on a deal worth up to around two hundred million dollars. On February 27, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2026/02/27/nx-s1-5729118/trump-anthropic-pentagon-openai-ai-weapons-ban">Trump ordered</a> every federal agency to stop using Anthropic technology. The same day, OpenAI announced a Pentagon classified-network deal. Around March 3, the Defense Department designated Anthropic a supply-chain risk, reportedly the first time it had ever pinned that label on an American company. Anthropic sued the Defense Department about a week later. On May 1, the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/01/tech/pentagon-ai-anthropic">Pentagon handed classified-network AI</a> awards to eight firms, including OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, Amazon's cloud arm, Nvidia, and SpaceX. Anthropic was left off the list.</p><p></p><p>So by June, the relationship was already raw. I am not telling you the export order was revenge, and no source proves that. But the sequence is there to see.</p><p></p><p>The person who set the June order in motion was not a regulator and not a rival nation. It was Anthropic's own biggest backer. On Thursday, June 11, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy escalated a<a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/06/13/anthropic-amazon-white-house"> concern about</a> Fable 5 to senior officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Amazon is Anthropic's largest investor. It is also a direct competitor. Roughly twenty-four hours after that call, the Commerce directive landed.</p><p></p><h2>One lab gets the off-switch, a rival gets a shield</h2><p></p><p>There is a mirror image the same week. While the administration switched off one lab's models on national-security grounds, it moved to protect a different lab on national-security grounds. The Justice Department stepped into a pollution lawsuit against Elon Musk's xAI, asking a <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/16/doj-claims-xais-unpermitted-gas-turbines-are-a-matter-of-national-economic-and-energy-security/">court</a> to throw it out, with a Pentagon official calling Musk's Grok a matter of paramount national security. One lab gets the off-switch. A rival gets a shield. I am not saying the two were coordinated. But the contrast shows the same lever can cut in opposite directions depending on who is holding it.</p><p></p><h2>The durable fact</h2><p></p><p>The feud is gripping, and the walk-back is real, and we will get to both. But the durable fact, the one that outlives this particular week, is the mechanism itself. The government showed that it can reach into a deployed frontier model and switch it off in real time. Not block a sale. Not levy a penalty months later in court. Switch it off, today, everywhere.</p><p></p><p>That is portable. The same letter that went to Dario Amodei can be written to OpenAI, to Google DeepMind, to xAI. Legal analysts at CSIS and at Lawfare make exactly that <a href="https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/a-kill-switch-for-frontier-ai">point</a>. Lawfare titled its piece "A Kill Switch for Frontier AI," and the logic is simple. If the authority works against Anthropic, it works against anyone building at the frontier.</p><p></p><p>How confident should you be in that read? Hold it loosely, because it has happened exactly once. One use is an event, not yet a pattern. But it is the kind of event that changes what every lab now has to assume is possible. You do not need it to happen twice to start planning around it.</p><p></p><h2>The Admin&#8217;s Case vs Anthropic&#8217;s Case</h2><p></p><p>The administration's case deserves its strongest form. White House AI czar David Sacks says a highly credible partner trusted by both Anthropic and the government came forward with a <a href="https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/trump-adviser-david-sacks-says-anthropic-refused-to-fix-fable-5-jailbreak-before-us-export-controls">jailbreak</a>. Officials asked Anthropic to fix the model or pull it, and, in his telling, "Dario refused." The administration says it acted reluctantly. An unnamed senior official told <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-admin-says-anthropics-recklessness-triggered-export-controls-latest-ai-models">Fox Business</a> that Anthropic's recklessness in handling the flaw had eroded the government's trust. If you believe a deployed model could hand a hostile actor real cyberattack capability, and the maker would not fix it, then a fast, blunt response is not crazy. It is arguably the job.</p><p></p><p>Anthropic's account is just as sourced, and it tells a different story. The company says the demonstration surfaced only a small number of previously known, minor vulnerabilities, the kind you can reproduce on other public models, and it pointed at OpenAI's GPT-5.5 as an example. Anthropic says it was given only verbal evidence and roughly ninety minutes to comply, with no prior warning. The security community backed it <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/06/15/anthropic-fable-security-leaders-trump-admin">loudly</a>. Nearly a hundred and fifty security leaders signed an open letter. Alex Stamos, who organized it, put it this way. "<em>For us to shut down our best capabilities at the moment we know the Chinese are using and stockpiling these vulnerabilities is dangerous, absolutely foolish.</em>" The letter argued the order "has taken the best models away from defenders, created market uncertainty, and risked America's AI leadership without any real risk to justify it."</p><p></p><p>The two stories cannot both be fully true. Either the flaw was severe enough to justify an off-switch, or it was minor and common, and the off-switch served some other purpose. Each side's version happens to flatter that side. The administration's version justifies the order. Anthropic's version makes Anthropic the victim. When the facts are this self-serving in both directions, the honest move is to not pick a winner on severity yet.</p><p></p><h2>Friendlier Dialogue?</h2><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0yZh!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6052f1a9-5b6a-482f-a83c-8c6f7c0b1ddd_1179x1540.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0yZh!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6052f1a9-5b6a-482f-a83c-8c6f7c0b1ddd_1179x1540.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0yZh!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6052f1a9-5b6a-482f-a83c-8c6f7c0b1ddd_1179x1540.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0yZh!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6052f1a9-5b6a-482f-a83c-8c6f7c0b1ddd_1179x1540.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0yZh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6052f1a9-5b6a-482f-a83c-8c6f7c0b1ddd_1179x1540.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0yZh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6052f1a9-5b6a-482f-a83c-8c6f7c0b1ddd_1179x1540.png" width="1179" height="1540" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6052f1a9-5b6a-482f-a83c-8c6f7c0b1ddd_1179x1540.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:&quot;normal&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:1540,&quot;width&quot;:1179,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:0,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0yZh!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6052f1a9-5b6a-482f-a83c-8c6f7c0b1ddd_1179x1540.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0yZh!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6052f1a9-5b6a-482f-a83c-8c6f7c0b1ddd_1179x1540.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0yZh!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6052f1a9-5b6a-482f-a83c-8c6f7c0b1ddd_1179x1540.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0yZh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6052f1a9-5b6a-482f-a83c-8c6f7c0b1ddd_1179x1540.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>What I will say with more confidence is this. By June 19, the temperature dropped fast. Trump told <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/06/19/trump-anthropic-national-security-the-axios-show">Axios</a> he no longer sees Anthropic as a national-security threat and said the company had responded responsibly. Asked directly whether he had viewed Amodei as a threat, he said, "<em>Well, not now, but a week ago, maybe</em>." Amodei and Lutnick both turned up at the G7 in France, where Amodei sat across from Trump at a working lunch. Anthropic said it expected access to return in coming days. A security crisis that can cool off over a working lunch was, at minimum, negotiable. That tells you something about how solid the original rationale was.</p><p></p><p>Strip away the personalities and one thing remains on the shelf. The United States now has a working method to turn off a frontier AI model on demand, and it has used it once. The models may come back this week. The feud may fade by fall. The mechanism does not go away. It sits there, proven, waiting for the next letter.</p><p></p><h2>What&#8217;re your thoughts?</h2><p></p><p>So I actually want to know where you land on this. A government that can switch off a dangerous AI model is also a government that can switch off an inconvenient one. Do you want that lever to exist at all? If a model can genuinely arm an enemy, someone should be able to stop it fast. But the same week showed the same power used to shield a favored company. So where do you come down? Is a real-time off-switch on frontier AI a tool you want your government to hold, or is it too dangerous to trust to whoever happens to be in charge? Tell me, and tell me why.</p><p></p><h2>In other news.</h2><p></p><p>OpenAI is facing a probe from forty-two states as it moves toward going public. New York Attorney General Letitia James served a subpoena around June 12 over advertising, data practices, and harm to minors and seniors, days after OpenAI disclosed a confidential filing to go public on June 8. The talked-about trillion-dollar valuation is an analyst target, not a real number. The confirmed private valuation from a March round is eight hundred fifty-two billion dollars.</p><p></p><p>Yann LeCun <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/18/yann-lecun-elon-musk-xai-failure-ai-labs-bubble-risk.html">called</a> Musk's xAI "<em>kind of a failure</em>" in a CNBC interview on June 18, pointing to departures from its founding team, and warned of an AI bubble that could explode. He is one of the field's most prominent researchers.</p><p></p><p>ChatGPT <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/chatgpt-market-share-slips-below-50-google-gemini-anthropic-claude-gain-ground-126061700765_1.html">slipped</a> below half the market for the first time. Sensor Tower's State of AI report, out June 16, put ChatGPT at 46.4 percent of monthly AI-assistant users at the end of May, with Google's Gemini at 27.7 percent and Anthropic's Claude at 10.3 percent. ChatGPT still has more than 1.1 billion monthly users, so this is share shifting, not collapse.</p><p></p><p>Paradromics implanted its first permanent brain-computer interface in an FDA-approved study at the University of <a href="https://www.michiganmedicine.org/news-release/university-michigan-implants-first-human-paradromics-wireless-brain-computer-interface-designed">Michigan</a> this month, placing a 421-wire array in a patient with motor neuron disease. You may also have seen China's NEO implant called a world first this week. The approval behind that headline actually happened back in March, and aggregators recirculated it in June</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Here goes!]]></title><description><![CDATA[Why am I doing this?]]></description><link>https://alexprompts.substack.com/p/here-goes</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://alexprompts.substack.com/p/here-goes</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Alex Prompts]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2026 21:42:41 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MK4N!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc7fa07a9-304f-4ad2-aa1d-1ff33f61c818_1160x903.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://alexprompts.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://alexprompts.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><h3>1. 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